Washington Business Journal

April 6, 2007

Fear Not, Prince William is On The Rise

Prince William County may be “turning back into a pumpkin” in the minds of some local residents, according to a recent newspaper article. If this is true, however, the County could be likened to a small, fast-growing pumpkin that has survived a brief drought and is destined to win a blue ribbon in the state fair.

A couple of economic development setbacks have occurred in rapid succession. Eli Lilly abandoned its partially completed insulin manufacturing plant, and the County still lacks luxury shopping opportunities such as a Jaguar dealership.

Let’s leave image aside for a moment, however, and look at the numbers. Just two years ago, Prince William had the highest job growth rate (eight percent) of any large county in the nation. Since 2000, the county has experienced almost explosive overall growth. Population rose from about 190,000 to almost 250,000, while the average household income climbed from a not-too-shabby $80,000 or so to over $91,000.

These numbers are even more impressive in the Gainesville “hub” that includes such neighborhoods as Linton Hall, Heritage Hunt, Piedmont, Braemar, Virginia Oaks, and Dominion Valley Estates. There, the population has nearly quadrupled in the last six years -- from about 4,600 to over 17,000 -- while the average household income is now over $115,000 and projected to rise to over $122,000 by 2011. Even factoring in the County’s eastern sector, Prince William ranks as the seventh wealthiest county in the nation.

It won’t take long for the nation’s top retailers to recognize the profit potential represented by this concentration of highly affluent consumers. Commercial development -- including both retail amenities and Class A office projects -- follows the rooftops. It’s evident that western Prince William County is building the “critical mass” of high-earning residents that will soon attract both corporate office tenants and luxury retail options.

But economic development isn’t just about Jaguars and Jimmy Choo’s shoes. Prince William County’s concerted economic development efforts are paying off to the tune of over $200 million in investment during each of the two past years -- part of a total of over a billion dollars’ worth since 2002, according to press reports. At the 1,600-acre Innovation business park near Gainesville, Lilly’s departure is offset by the new FBI building under construction, Buchanan Partners’ 125,000 square feet of speculative flex/office space, and George Mason University’s Center for Biotechnoloy, Bioscience, and Bioinformation. A $56 million 1,100-seat performing arts center, designed in the style of a grand European opera house, is set to break ground this fall.

Gainesville is quickly emerging as the hub of Prince William County’s economic expansion. Millions of square feet of office and commercial space are on the boards or under development in and around this formerly sleepy crossroads. Strategically located at the confluence I-66 and Route 29, the 70-acre Heritage Hunt Commercial Park now has a retail center and professional office condos on Heathcoate Boulevard; very shortly, ground will be broken for the first phase of the 350,000 square foot Heritage Hunt Corporate Park, which will be western Prince William County’s first Class A office complex. Nearby, the 430-acre Virginia Gateway project will combine over a million square feet of office space, 730,000 square feet of stores and restaurants, almost 500 residences, and a hotel.

These projects and others reflect the business community’s confidence in Prince William’s underlying economic strength and potential. By bringing jobs to the people instead of making people go to the jobs, new commercial development will further transform Prince William County into a place where people can live, work, play, dine, and shop…and maybe even buy a new Jaguar.